35-45 cm of snow

[almontefisher]

IMHO... the best forecast is shown here and I will decipher for you below the image;



Saturday evening to Sunday morning = 1-3 cm snow

Sunday morning to Sunday evening = 4 cm snow with 25% prob of as much as 7 cm and 25% prob of as little as 2 cm. EXTREME possibility although not likely is 16 cm.

Sunday Evening to Monday morning = 3 cm with 25% prob as much 7cm
and 25 prob as little as 2cm with EXTREME possibilility although not likely of 20 sm.

Monday morning to Monday noon = 2cm 25% prob of as much as 6cm and 25% prob as little as 1cm with extreme possibility of near 25cm but extremely doubtful.


What actually going to happen .... well, the snow amounts are going to vary A LOT from one place to another, in these types of weather systems, timming is everything. so if all the parameter (and there are many) come together at the right time you get dumped on, if one or two fall out of sync you get considerably less in varying amounts.

Yes it is a crap shoot.... your right.... the point is, that there is a possibility of all HE!! breaking loose, our job is to show what is likely to happen with some of the possibilities.


Beleive it or not ... MANY Milllions are are saved or lost based on "probabilities" (hedging bets) on what the weather is going to do for significant events.

All I see is a 100% chance that we live in Canada and this stuff happens. Why are we so surprised?? Oh and Serge: I also see a 75% chance that all those yellow lines make me confused!

[ratsotail]

Still a few days off, but here's the latest from accuweather on predictions:

MonsterStorm Could be Winter's Worst By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Dec 8, 2010; 1:00 PM ETShare | In areas hit by the Monster snowstorm this weekend these could be the worst conditions of the winter months, factoring in snow and returning wind, cold and lake-effect.

The Monster snowstorm slated for this weekend will hit portions of the Midwest, eastern Great Lakes, central Appalachians, Ontario and Quebec the hardest.


ratsotail

Hey ratsotail, this meteorologist should write MacBay Monster Bass reports!!

Thanks for the heads up!

Craig

Ah yes Craig, the weatherman can be just as sensational, if not more, than McBay fisherman. I'm sure weather forecasting (aka weather guessing) would make for a good thread some day . Too funny!

tight lines

ratsotail

[plncrzy]

So many thingscan be confusing until you use it for a while, then you realize how easy and simple it realy is

[cprince]

So many thingscan be confusing until you use it for a while, then you realize how easy and simple it realy is

My jars of bear fat says it will be sunny today!



Craig

[plncrzy]

So many thingscan be confusing until you use it for a while, then you realize how easy and simple it realy is

My jars of bear fat says it will be sunny today!



Craig

When I was in Edmonton as a forecaster, and used to perform radio broadcasts, the DJ mentioned that a fellow called in and said that according to the Splien fromt he pig that he had just butchered, the weather for the winter was going to be such and such

[Raydar]

Hey almontefisher thanks for the update on the ice. I think we might be fishing the same area so it's good to know what the ice is like. I'm new to the ice fishing thing so I can't wait ( well I can if the ice isn't safe ) to get out there and hopefully catch some groceries, lol. Keep the updates coming.

Raydar

[horsehunter]

NEW FORCAST

Dark tonight light to-morow

[plncrzy]

NEW FORCAST

Dark tonight light to-morow

but what's you prabability of it happening?

[MLR]

never seen a forecast of yellow snow before, but I know there is a 100% chance there will be yellow snow this year.

[Out4trout]

Thanks Serge for the line-bar forecasts. I've never seen it displayed this way before, but I like it -showing the certainty/variability.
Are these available to the public?

[plncrzy]

Thanks Serge for the line-bar forecasts. I've never seen it displayed this way before, but I like it -showing the certainty/variability.
Are these available to the public?

here are the instructions for accessing the probabilistic forecasts.

their not easy to access so Ill try to show it as simply as possible;

1. access the Enveironment canada web page here
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pag ... ric_e.html
2. On the left hand column click on Analisys and modeling
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html
3 half way down this page click on •Ensemble Forecasts (NAEFS)
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble ... dex_e.html
4 click on •EPSgrams for cities in Canada, Mexico and United States of America
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble ... ams_e.html

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is a joint project involving the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), the United States National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM). NAEFS was officially launched in November 2004 in presence of representatives of the three countries.

NAEFS combines state of the art ensemble forecasts, developed at the MSC and the NWS. When combined, the grand ensemble can provide weather forecast guidance for the 1-14 day period that is of higher quality than the currently available operational guidance based on either set of ensembles alone. It allows the generation of a set of forecast products that are seamless across the national boundaries between Canada, the United States and Mexico. The research/development and operational costs of the NAEFS system are shared by the three organizations (MSC, NWS, and NMSM), which make it more cost effective and result in higher quality and more extensive weather forecast products.

[joco]

i just saw that montreal was supose to get 5 and got 25..so what can they say that is sher........nothing.

so will see sunday night what we got.simple as that.

will do a little chek up on the snowblower tomorow in case taugh.

joco....bring the snow..snowshoe are ready.....

but heavy snow would not be good for those little area where ice is on now...not good at all. for those spots.

joco

[Wallyboss]

I was talking to a North American Indian today and he told me that it was going to be a long Cold Winter. I asked him how he knew that. And he answered " Whiteman cut lots of wood"

[joco]

good one wally.


reading this..some are already got more then 177cm off snow since last weekend...thats freaking like 5 foot or what.jeeeeee




most be heaven for skidooer.

but.thats insane not even winter yet
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/more-snow-way- ... tario.html

joco

[horsehunter]

was talking to a North American Indian today and he told me that it was going to be a long Cold Winter. I asked him how he knew that. And he answered Me got transistor radio